Image Credit: Adege from Pixabay/Canva
Introduction
Traditional Indigenous knowledge is an important source of information for understanding the climate. The Mi’kmaq have thrived for well over 13,000 years in the region of Mi’kma’ki, which stretches across the colonial borders of Nova Scotia, Prince Edward Island, eastern New Brunswick, the Gaspé Peninsula of Quebec, and Newfoundland. The Mi’kmaw language is strongly connected to nature and demonstrates a deep understanding of ecological patterns in this region. One example of this knowledge is the Mi’kmaw calendar, based on lunar cycles, where each moon is named for an important biophysical indicator of the changing seasons.
This series of posts will explore the Mi’kmaw calendar from the perspective of the changing climate, including some analysis of climate data trends that relate to each moon. Learning from traditional knowledge helps us understand how the climate is already different from what was normal in this region for thousands of years. Analyzing climate data helps us understand the changes still to come.
Any climate data shown are from the latest downscaled projections for Canada (CMIP6), accessed via ClimateData.ca. Values are the median results for averaged 30-year periods, and are geographically specific to the community mentioned.
December
In the Mi’kmaw calendar, the December moon is known as Kesikewiku’s (ges-ig-gay-we-goos), the winter moon. This period covers the approximate date range of December 6 to January 5, which includes the winter solstice, the shortest day of the year, and the full moon that rises highest in the sky. Typical winter conditions across Mi’kma’ki include colder air temperatures, freezing waters and snowfall.
As the climate warms, these typical winter conditions become less common. In Abegweit First Nation, the average temperature during winter (Kesik) was -5.8°C during the period of 1951-1980. The average winter temperature has already been slightly warmer during the following period of 1981-2010, averaging -5.2°C. The following table shows how the average winter temperature is projected to change over time under both low and high emission scenarios for this area.
Drone photo of Eastern Passage, NS, February 2023. Photo courtesy of David Jones.
Average winter temperature (Abegweit First Nation) |
||
Time period |
Low emissions(SSP2-4.5) |
High emissions(SSP5-8.5) |
| 1951-1980 | -5.8°C | |
| 1981-2010 | -5.2°C | |
| 2011-2040 | -3.6°C | -3.3°C |
| 2040-2070 | -2.2°C | -1.2°C |
| 2071-2100 | -1.1°C | 0.9°C |
The season of Kesik (winter) is the time of year that is warming the most rapidly. Compared to what was normal historically, winters by the end of the century may be around 4.7°C warmer under a low emissions scenario, and 6.7°C warmer under a high emissions scenario. Milder winters mean that, on average, communities across Mi’kma’ki will experience more frequent temperatures above freezing (0°C), less extreme cold, and less snow and ice.
Keep an eye on this post for the next edition of Mi’kmaw Moons in January.
November
In the Mi’kmaw calendar, the November moon is known as Keptekewiku’s (geb-deg-gay-we-goos), the rivers freezing over moon. This period covers the approximate date range of November 7 to December 6. This was the time when temperatures started to regularly drop below 0°C and surface waters across Mi’kma’ki would first start to show signs of freezing over.
In Natoaganeg (Eel Ground) First Nation on the Miramichi River, there were an average of 80 ice days each year during the period 1951-1980. Ice days occur when temperatures remain below freezing for the entire day, meaning thicker, stable ice can form and persist. As the climate has warmed the number of ice days has already started to decrease, with 75 ice days being more typical during the period 1981-2010. The following table shows how the number of ice days is projected to change over time under both low and high emissions scenarios for this area.
Image credit: Winter on the Kennebecasis River, Hampton, New Brunswick, Canada — Greenseas, Getty Images/Canva
Number of annual ice days (Natoaganeg First Nation) |
||
Time period |
Low emissions(SSP2-4.5) |
High emissions(SSP5-8.5) |
| 1950-1980 | 80 | |
| 1980-2010 | 75 | |
| 2011-2040 | 62 | 60 |
| 2040-2070 | 50 | 41 |
| 2071-2100 | 42 | 22 |
Compared to what was normal historically, the number of ice days is projected to be nearly halved by the end of the century under a low emissions scenario, and only a quarter of what used to occur under a high emissions scenario. Fewer ice days may result in freeze-up occurring later in the winter, and could mean rivers may not freeze over consistently or for as long. This may cause impacts on freshwater ecosystems and cultural practices such as ice fishing.
Keep an eye on this post for the next edition of Mi’kmaw Moons in December.
October
In the Mi’kmaw calendar, the October moon is known as Wikewiku’s (wig-gay-we-goos), the animal fattening moon. This period covers the approximate date range of October 8 to November 7. This is the time when animals across Mi’kma’ki are foraging and feeding to fatten up for the long, cold winter ahead.
One of the main indicators of the coming winter during this period is the first frost event in fall. In Bear River First Nation, the first fall frost occurred on October 12, on average, during the period of 1951-1980. With climate change this first frost has been occurring later, with October 17 being a more typical date in the period 1981-2010. The following table shows how the date of the first fall frost is projected to change over time under both low and high emission scenarios for this area.
Image credit: Daizuoxin from Getty Images/Canva
Date of first frost in fall (Bear River First Nation) |
||
Time period |
Low emissions(SSP2-4.5) |
High emissions(SSP5-8.5) |
| 1950-1980 | October 12 | |
| 1980-2010 | October 17 | |
| 2011-2040 | October 28 | October 28 |
| 2040-2070 | November 2 | November 10 |
| 2071-2100 | November 8 | November 24 |
The first frost event in fall occurring several weeks later in the year may impact when and how animals prepare for the winter. More food may be available later into the year, and winters may not be as long or as harsh. Some animals may be able to adjust their behaviors for these changing conditions, but others will struggle with this rapid rate of climatic change.
